2006 CENSUS – MATTERS ARISING 10042006

The 2006 National Headcount has come and gone and hopefully, the results (for what it is worth) will be available in due course.  Whether or not the results will generally be acceptable as accurate may depend on which side of the country you come from.  The published results of population counts in the last 40 years or so have always indicated the population distribution to be almost equally balanced between the North and the South (with the North having a marginal superiority) using an arbitrary lateral line cutting across the country, East to West through the confluence of the Niger and Benue Rivers.  If the 2006 Census results show a pattern of population distribution that is different from the above traditional configuration, then, of course, we may expect that the results will be contentious!  On the other hand, if the results follow the traditional pattern of marginal Northern population superiority, then professional demographers may insist that the results cannot be realistically accurate as this would imply a demographic fallacy that more people inhabit desert or Sahelian regions than the coastal and tropical geographical belts with inclement life sustaining climate, soil and vegetation!  

Indeed, a cursory road journey from the North to the South of Nigeria shows evidence of intense competition for land space along every kilometer traveled in Southern Nigeria, while you may travel for up to 50 kilometers or more in the Northern half of the country without making an encounter with any human settlement!  So, what will be the results of census 2006; a statement that conforms to universal demographic expectations or the perpetuation of a flawed configuration that would continue to elicit cynicism nationally and internationally? It is certain that the North will find the truth offensive, provocative and unacceptable in view of the implication of the diminished share of political power and by extension of the public treasury which for the last 40 years or so has been fed primarily from the wealth of the colonized minority in the Niger Delta.

Meanwhile, the specter of planning with inaccurate and skewed census figures portends huge wastages, leakages and gross inefficiency for the allocation of the Nation’s resources.  So, do we continue to waste our scare resources on the altar of political expediency and consequently continue to watch helplessly as the masses endure the indignity of poverty all over the country?  This is the grave dilemma confronting our political elite!

In the above event, some observers have decried the N20bn or more, reportedly spent on the census exercise; they maintain that the political considerations discussed above predetermine inaccurate and stunted census results, which would continue to have adverse implications for national planning.  These observers have suggested that the money could have been better applied for specific alleviation of poverty in some areas or alternatively adopted for the completion of some specific project with mass appeal.

I recall a discussion I had with an artisan during the five days forced census holidays in Lagos State!  My young friend insisted that the census was unnecessary and every attempt I made to explain that social amenities which he agreed were grossly lacking for the masses would be better and appropriately provided by government when they know how many people live in each area, was rebuffed by my young friend’s mistrust of government.  My artisan friend insisted that the government already knows where the problem areas are and has never done anything about it.  He explained that the government does not need any census to know that the people of Ajegunle, Ijora, Bariga, Amukoko, etc need pipe borne water, better health care delivery system, better housing, better equipped and more schools, more and better housing facilities; “they know these places”, he complained “and yet the government has not done anything.  If they don’t remedy the inadequacies of the areas they know, how can they be truly concerned about those areas they don’t know?  "The government is insincere he concluded”!

The colossal cost of the 5 or 6 days forced holidays in Lagos in particular and the rest of the country in general cannot be accurately assessed, but what is certain is that hundreds of billions of naira value would have been lost from the industrial and commercial inactivity ranging from the daily trading on the stock exchange floor, which trades over N1bn every day and right down to the losses and deprivation of daily income earners such as okada operators and food hawkers.  Industrialists and the banking sectors were not left out and most employers of labour will be faced with a full wages bills inspite of 25% or more downtime in their operations during the month of March.  Even the government was not left out, as the derived tax income would be depleted by the impact of the stay-at-home order on the volume of business lost during the census count.  The ultimate shame would be if this national sacrifice all comes to naught as a result of inconclusive and unacceptable census results!

Nonetheless, it is the opinion of this column that our census results will not be accurate or meaningful until we embrace the tenets of true federalism.  True federalism does not condone the brazen appropriation of one area’s resources for the development of another region at the expense of the benefactor region!  The struggle and fight to control political power at the centre and thereby control the nation’s resources and revenue will continue to endanger census results so long as population superiority remains the prime factor for revenue allocation and political power. Local governments, states, regional and ethnic groupings would go to great lengths to bloat their figures to ensure recognition as prime population centres in the current scenario.  This distortional motivation will only be kept at bay if fiscal contributions to the federal treasury by the states and local governments are based on the respective population in each area in the true spirit of federalism.  If the federal government has to perform its functions in the areas of security, defence, higher education, foreign affairs, etc, it would obviously require funds and the amount of funds demanded form each state for these purposes will be commensurate with the number of people in each state or local government!  In this manner, there would be no motivation to increase population figures as this would imply increasing the burden of expected monthly remittance from each state to the centre!  A nation where wealth creation underpins a federal structure would be more stable and progressive than one in which the conquered is enslaved and the booty is shared amongst the presumably ‘populous’ majority!  

Indeed, in such a truly federal state, the huge economic loss suffered as a result of the 5 – 6 days stay-at-home order will be avoided, as the census process would be scheduled instalmentally to take place on Saturdays only, in a progressive and systematic fashion from area to area, and economic activities in the whole nation need not be totally shut down as they were in the last exercise.  The problem of material shortages and late deliveries and the effective management of the vital needs of enumerators would have been more sensibly and efficiently handled with the appropriate level of accountability and success on all facets!